High-Value Life GuideLife's expensive mistakes
中文

Policy, legal and insurance guides primarily concern mainland China. Scope and sources ↗

Back to the life guide

When deciding whether to continue, only consider future investments and future returns — not what has already been invested.

Original: eternity4719 · source details

Original author: eternity4719 · Chinese source: · English adaptation: parveen0029. Translation and grade notes ↗

Bibliographic titles are retained in their original language.

Source author's views and grades; not individually verified by this site.

Cost and benefit at a glance
Check the cost Cost ↓
No cost involved. The difficulty lies in accepting that time already invested cannot be recovered.
Then the source benefit Benefit ↓
Prior investments of money, effort, and time increase the likelihood of continued engagement. This is known as the sunk cost effect in psychology. Analysis of 98 datasets confirms …

In plain terms

Money and time already spent make people more inclined to keep going. Across 98 datasets, this tendency remains consistent. Therefore, when deciding whether to continue, only factor in future investments and expected returns; past expenditures should be excluded from consideration.

This guide's cartoon · show illustration
Chapter 4 editorial cartoon: Eight pages of plans. Step one still waiting. Enlarge illustration
Eight pages of plans. Step one still waiting.

Zoom in, then swipe to move around the picture.

Loading full-size illustration…

Editorial cartoon · Chapter 4Eight pages of plans. Step one still waiting.

Original illustration with Chinese lettering; the English dialogue is below. Humour is a reading aid, not evidence.

English dialogue
  • Tomorrow. Definitely.
  • Which step happens today?

Cost: what it takes

No cost involved. The difficulty lies in accepting that time already invested cannot be recovered.

Benefit: what the source reports

Prior investments of money, effort, and time increase the likelihood of continued engagement. This is known as the sunk cost effect in psychology. Analysis of 98 datasets confirms this tendency is stable. Avoiding this bias prevents people from continuing to invest time solely to avoid “wasting” what they have already spent.

Conditions, limits and disagreements

This is exactly what Arkes and Blumer demonstrated in their theater experiment. The Ohio University Theater sold season tickets at three price points: full price ($15), $13, and $8. In the first half of the season, ticket holders who paid full price attended an average of 4.11 shows, compared to 3.32 and 3.29 shows for the other two groups. No significant differences emerged between the groups in the second half of the season. Roth and colleagues found this effect diminishes over time and is less pronounced among older individuals.

Original references

Original bibliographic titles and links are preserved; some titles are in Chinese.

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4;Roth, S., Robbert, T., & Straus, L. (2015). On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: A meta-analytic review. Business Research, 8(1), 99–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40685-014-0014-8

Medical, legal, financial and policy conditions vary by person, place and time. Policy material primarily concerns mainland China; check the cited document and current local requirements.